The ECB and the BoE provided a comforting signal to markets that the end of the respective tightening campaigns is coming before the summer. In the process, they are closing their hawkishness gap relative to the Fed....
The US economy will experience a period of benign disinflation over the next few quarters. Beyond this goldilocks period, either the economy will slip into a mild recession in 2024, or more ominously, a second wave of inflation will prompt the Fed to slam on the brakes, leading to a deep recession....
MacroQuant Global Equity Score is bearish but continues to improve. Our small vs large indicator currently favors large caps, but is close to switching, as such we recommend a small cap screen based on a recent report from our European Investment Strategists....
Our bullish view on commodity prices is underpinned by demand growth driven by stronger real GDP, led by EM. Threats to this view – i.e., a failed re-opening in China, stronger USD, higher real rates in the US, and continued policy uncertainty – are non-trivial. All the same, we remain bullish indus...
This US Bond Strategy Insight discusses what we learned from yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, and discusses the implications of the market’s reaction....
The regulatory clampdown on Chinese platform companies is over. However, these companies have entered a new phase of active government control. Going forward, most platform companies’ strategic and business decisions will prioritize national interests, at the expense of shareholder interests. After ...
President Biden’s political capital has fallen as he enters a challenging year that will include a domestic faceoff with the House Republicans and foreign crises stemming from China, Russia, and Iran. Stay defensive and prefer bonds over equities....
When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H....
