Chinese social unrest will be suppressed first, then the government will relax policies to stabilize the economy. We are reducing our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $85/bbl as a result of the short-term negative news, but maintaining our $116/bbl forecast for next year....
European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?...
Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper....
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each ...
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2023. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each ...
In this report, we look at the possibility of a dollar decline during any pending recession. In our view, the evidence is mixed. We are probably in one of the most anticipated recessions in recent history, and the dollar has risen a lot. But the dollar also tends to rise during most recessions. We r...
Long-term deflationary forces in Japan are weakening, setting the stage for inflation to make a comeback over the remainder of the decade. Investors should prepare to structurally reduce exposure to Japanese bonds starting early next year. Higher Japanese bond yields will lift an extremely undervalu...
Excess job vacancies in the US and UK reflect a labour market that cannot efficiently match unemployed workers with vacant jobs. This is because excess job vacancies reflect the shortage of labour supply in the 50 plus age cohort, whose skills are difficult to replace. In economic jargon, the post-p...
We expect oil inventories to resume drawing and EU sanctions on Russian oil imports to tighten markets. We remain bullish oil and continue to expect 4Q22 and 2023 Brent prices to average $100/bbl and $116/bbl, respectively. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs....
Peru is not suffering from economic or financial excesses: genuine inflation is subdued, fiscal and monetary policies are orthodox, and external accounts are healthy. While political instability has risen anew, markets will likely push through the political noise. Given this, we are upgrading Peruvi...
