Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds....
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds....
Fertilizer prices will continue to move lower as the natgas price shock touched off by the Russian invasion of Ukraine dissipates. As a result, we expect grain prices to soften another 10% this year. Food-price inflation will move lower over the course of the year as grain prices weaken, provided a ...
The new fiscal framework will fail to prevent the rise of the public debt-to-GDP ratio as it relies on overly optimistic revenue growth. A rising public debt-to-GDP ratio will lead to a widening fiscal risk premium in Brazilian financial markets. We are making two new recommendations: downgrade Braz...
In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile, cracks in the US labor market are already apparent, and there is strong ...
An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report. Recently, BCA’s former Chief Economist Martin Barnes had the pleasure o...
An important annual event is when long-time client Mr. X visits BCA strategists at the end of each year to talk about the economic and financial outlook and a write-up of the discussion is published as our Annual Outlook report. Recently, BCA’s former Chief Economist Martin Barnes had the pleasure o...
In this volume of BCA Crypto we compare gold against bitcoin. We begin by dispelling some common misconceptions that investors have about gold, and why, at its core, gold is driven more by belief than by intrinsic value. We then proceed to explain why gold still serves an important role in our econo...
First Republic Bank’s earnings report showed how its struggles have exaggerated the perception of other banks’ distress. Ex-FRC, the banking system appears to be coping with the post-Silicon Valley Bank turmoil pretty well....
