Latest from BCA Research
China’s economy is weakening across the board as global risk-off hits equities. With housing conditions worsening and exports contracting—a perfect storm—Beijing faces mounting pressure to deliver stronger, housing-focused stimulus.
Q3 results were strong but failed to impress investors, and Q4 will likely prove more challenging. Beneath the surface, earnings diverged sharply: Firms catering to affluent consumers maintained solid momentum, while those reliant on the mass market lagged. We remain equal weight Consumer Services and underweight Consumer Staples.
US talks with Russia and China coincide with rising EU-Russia and Japan-China tensions. Stay overweight US assets and long Japanese yen.
Markets are misreading Japan’s fiscal headlines. Our latest Insight examines what will shape BoJ policy next, when intervention might come, and the timing of a yen reversal.
The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.
Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index with a stop loss at 1470.
This report revisits China’s property market through both cyclical and structural lenses, assesses the likely policy responses, and evaluates their investment implications.