The long-term winners from the generative-AI gold rush are unlikely to be the ‘picks and shovels’ stock Nvidia or the overvalued US superstars of Web 2.0. We discuss the structural investment implications. Plus: time to go tactically overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI)....
Global Equity Score remains bullish. Major upgrades were made to Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in the Sector Model. The Style Indicator continues to favor Large-Cap Value....
MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term, fiscal spending will return to conservatism and the constitutional r...
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, commodity prices typically rally toward the end of the business cycle. In the past six recessions, the S&P 500 peaked before commodity prices. While there is significant variability across recessions, on average, the S&P GSCI topped ou...
Generative AI-related rally resumed in May. Much of the recent market gains are down to excess liquidity that was begotten by the massive pandemic stimulus, creating a dichotomy between multiple economic challenges and exuberant markets. The Fed is unlikely to step in to prevent the bubble as it is ...
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive....
European stocks have massively underperformed US ones since the GFC. Demographics and productivity say this trend will continue, but is that really so?...
