We expect oil inventories to resume drawing and EU sanctions on Russian oil imports to tighten markets. We remain bullish oil and continue to expect 4Q22 and 2023 Brent prices to average $100/bbl and $116/bbl, respectively. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs....
Peru is not suffering from economic or financial excesses: genuine inflation is subdued, fiscal and monetary policies are orthodox, and external accounts are healthy. While political instability has risen anew, markets will likely push through the political noise. Given this, we are upgrading Peruvi...
China is on the verge of experiencing a full range of deflation. Poor domestic demand will likely continue into 1H 2023 amid the ailing housing market, subdued private-sector sentiment and the zero-Covid policy, warranting a cautious stance on Chinese equities....
In this Special Report, we consider what some common monetary policy rules are recommending for the major central banks and derive conclusions on duration strategy and country allocation for bond investors. We conclude that rate hike expectations in most countries may appear appropriate given the cu...
Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will intensify. While it is highly likely that Airlines will continue to r...
The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy....
What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?...
Go long the Kensho Space index over a cyclical horizon on the back of growing public and private investment, rising national security interests, declining sector costs, and heightened geopolitical risk....
The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators....
